Tokyo, Oct. 4, 2025 (12:04 JST, updated 13:57 JST) – For the second time in just over a year, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is choosing a new leader — and likely the country’s next prime minister — following the resignation of outgoing leader and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
The first round of voting concluded this afternoon, with Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative and former internal affairs minister, emerging in first place. She will face Shinjiro Koizumi, the charismatic former environment minister and son of ex-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, in a head-to-head runoff later today. Results from the run-off are expected around 3:20 p.m. Japan time.
Also in the race were Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, veteran lawmaker Toshimitsu Motegi, and younger contender Takayuki Kobayashi. Despite their campaigns, both Motegi and Kobayashi fell short of advancing.
First Round Results
Party member and lawmaker votes in the first round set the stage for the dramatic run-off:
- Sanae Takaichi: 41.4% of party member votes, with strong showings in 20 of the 26 prefectures counted.
- Shinjiro Koizumi: 26.3%, winning three prefectures.
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 19.4%, claiming two prefectures.
- Toshimitsu Motegi: 7.0%, dominating only in his home prefecture of Tochigi.
- Takayuki Kobayashi: 5.9%, trailing behind.
Takaichi’s broad grassroots support among regional party members has given her strong momentum heading into the final round.
Candidates’ Final Push
In the hours leading up to the first vote, candidates held last-minute events and connected with supporters online:
- Takaichi told backers: “I will do everything in my power and then leave the outcome to fate. By uniting all generations, I will strongly rebuild the Liberal Democratic Party.”
- Koizumi emphasized inclusiveness: “I want to create opportunities for each individual to shine and build an ‘all-hands’ Liberal Democratic Party.”
- Hayashi struck a determined note: “I want to convey my passion until the very last moment and face this contest with determination.”
- Motegi, on social media, thanked supporters: “I’m truly supported by the best people. I will fight till the end with my people.”
- Kobayashi expressed optimism: “The battle day has finally come. I’ll do my best until the end.”
Senior party figures are also expected to play a decisive role in the run-off. Former Prime Minister Taro Aso was reported by Kyodo as saying he would support whichever candidate secured the most party member votes in the first round — a move that could favor Takaichi.
Stakes of the Leadership Race
The LDP leadership election comes at a critical juncture for Japan. The winner will not only lead the ruling party but will also likely become Japan’s next prime minister. Key issues at stake include:
- Foreign Policy and Defense: Candidates have clashed over how to position Japan amid rising regional tensions and debates over the defense budget.
- Demographics and Economy: With Japan’s population aging rapidly, contenders have promised new approaches to supporting working-age citizens and tackling labor shortages.
- Party Identity: The LDP faces internal divisions, balancing conservative traditions with the need for reform and broader appeal to younger generations.
What Comes Next
The run-off between Takaichi and Koizumi is now set to determine the LDP’s new leader. Both represent sharply contrasting visions for the party’s future:
- Takaichi represents the conservative wing, focusing on tradition, national security, and a strong party base.
- Koizumi, by contrast, embodies generational change, advocating reform, inclusivity, and a more modern image for the LDP.
With lawmakers’ votes holding more weight in the run-off, party factions and behind-the-scenes alliances could decide the outcome.
The results of the final round are expected around 3:20 p.m. Japan time, after which Japan’s political future — and its next prime minister — will be clear.
