Japan is facing a demographic turning point that experts have warned about for decades — a rapidly shrinking and ageing population. In 2024, Japan’s birth rate fell to a record low, with fewer than 800,000 babies born for the second consecutive year, while the number of deaths exceeded 1.5 million. This means Japan’s population is not just declining — it’s doing so at an accelerating pace.
The consequences are wide-ranging, from labour shortages and slowed economic growth to strains on healthcare and pension systems. As Japan searches for solutions, questions arise about whether other countries — including India — could face similar challenges in the future.
Why Japan’s Population Is Declining
Japan’s population decline is driven by two main factors:
- Low Fertility Rates: The average number of children per woman in Japan has dropped to around 1.2, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Ageing Society: Nearly 30% of the population is aged 65 or older, making Japan the most aged country in the world.
Cultural and economic factors also play a role. Rising living costs, limited childcare support, and demanding work schedules discourage young couples from starting families. Meanwhile, Japan’s strict immigration policies have slowed the inflow of foreign workers who might offset population decline.
Economic and Social Impacts
A shrinking population means fewer workers, which can slow economic productivity. It also puts immense pressure on the younger generation to support a growing elderly population through taxes and social security contributions. Rural areas are hit especially hard, with entire towns facing depopulation.
For Japan, innovation, automation, and selective immigration are key strategies to sustain its economy despite fewer people.
Will India Face a Similar De-Growth?
At first glance, India seems far from such a crisis. It is now the world’s most populous country, with a median age of just 28 — much younger than Japan’s 49. However, India’s fertility rate has already fallen to around 2.0, just below the replacement level in some states.
While population stabilisation can be beneficial for sustainable development, experts warn that without sufficient job creation, education access, and healthcare, India could see its “demographic dividend” turn into a missed opportunity. Over the next 30–40 years, India too will have to prepare for an ageing population, albeit at a slower pace than Japan.
Lessons India Can Learn from Japan
- Invest Early in Healthcare and Pensions: Building robust systems before the population ages.
- Encourage Work-Life Balance: Policies like affordable childcare and flexible work can help maintain birth rates.
- Plan for Automation: Preparing industries for a future with fewer workers.
- Consider Immigration as a Tool: Learning to attract and integrate foreign workers could help maintain workforce levels.
FAQs
Q1: How quickly is Japan’s population shrinking?
Japan’s population is declining by roughly half a million people per year, with deaths significantly outpacing births. Projections suggest the population could fall from 125 million today to under 100 million by 2050.
Q2: Is India’s falling fertility rate a bad sign?
Not necessarily. A moderate decline can help reduce pressure on resources and improve quality of life. However, if the drop is too sharp without adequate economic planning, it could lead to future labour shortages and ageing-related challenges, similar to Japan’s experience.
