Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has emerged as the frontrunner among Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers in the race to succeed party president Fumio Kishida, according to a recent Jiji Press survey. The 43-year-old Koizumi has secured backing from over 50 LDP lawmakers, positioning him ahead of key rivals Sanae Takaichi and Shigeru Ishiba.
Top Contenders
1. Shinjiro Koizumi (43): Former Environment Minister
– Support from over 50 LDP lawmakers
– Strong backing from unaffiliated lawmakers
2. Sanae Takaichi (63): Economic Security Minister
– Around 30 supporters among lawmakers
– Strong support from the Abe faction
3. Shigeru Ishiba (67): Former LDP Secretary-General
– Approximately 30 lawmaker supporters
– Backing primarily from factionless members
All three candidates are expected to perform well among rank-and-file party members and supporters.
Election Process
The LDP presidential election is scheduled for Friday, September 27, 2024. Key points:
– Total votes: 736
– 368 from LDP lawmakers
– 368 from rank-and-file members and supporters
– If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff will be held the same day
– Runoff votes:
– 368 from lawmakers (unchanged)
– 47 from prefectural chapters (representing rank-and-file members)
Other Candidates
Takayuki Kobayashi (49):Former Economic Security Minister
– Support from at least 40 lawmakers
– Strong backing from Abe and Nikai factions
Yoshimasa Hayashi (63): Chief Cabinet Secretary
– At least 40 lawmaker supporters
– Broad support base, including former Kishida faction members
Toshimitsu Motegi (68):Secretary-General
– Over 30 supporters, mainly from his own faction (set to disband)
Taro Kono (61): Digital Transformation Minister
– Nearly 30 supporters, mostly from Taro Aso’s faction
Yoko Kamikawa (71): Foreign Minister
– Approximately 20 supporters
Katsunobu Kato (68):Former Chief Cabinet Secretary
– Around 20 supporters
Analysis
While Koizumi leads in lawmaker support, concerns about his ability to manage the government persist, particularly among upper house members. The race remains tight, with no candidate expected to secure a majority in the first round of voting. The runoff is likely to be crucial in determining the next LDP president and, by extension, Japan’s next Prime Minister.
The outcome of this election will have significant implications for Japan’s political landscape and policy direction in the coming years.
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